Manual gearboxes and diesel engines could both be heading for extinction in the UK car market by the end of the decade, according to new analysis from Vehicle Data Global.
Diesel’s market share has fallen by 92% since 2016, while manual cars currently hold just 13.7% of the market so far this year.
Manuals Are Disappearing Fast
VDG analysed millions of market data points and found that the drop in manual cars is not just down to hybrids and EVs replacing petrol and diesel models. Even among petrol and diesel cars, where buyers still have a choice, manuals have roughly halved since 2016. Among ICE car buyers, manual transmission has dropped from 55% in 2019 to 34% in 2025.
Costs Are An Issue
VDG says the key issue is not just falling demand, but whether manufacturers can justify the cost of continuing to develop, certify, and build manual gearboxes for a shrinking part of the market.
“The moment is fast approaching when the economics of maintaining a manual transmission option don’t add up, given the R&D, certification and other overheads of developing and refining gearboxes, even if there remains some demand in the market. Based on current trend data, between 5% and 10% of cars will theoretically still be manual by 2030. But manufacturers will be looking hard at whether maintaining manual gearbox programmes for a shrinking share of the market makes economic sense, while they manage the overall pressures of conversion from ICE and competing with international market entrants in the EV sector.”
Ben Hermer, Operations Director of VDG
Is This The End For Diesel & Manual Gearboxes?
Looking at the results of this study, VDG believes the traditional diesel manual “motorway mile-muncher” could be almost gone by 2030. Could this be the end for diesel engines and manual gearboxes?
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